Monday, February 16, 2009

"The problem with Occam's Razor is that you can't actually cut someone with it."

I have an issue with conspiracy theories. The issue is not so much that they exist (that would seem to be an inevitability, especially in the age of the internet), but that I have repeatedly seen otherwise intelligent, rational people become completely drawn into these theories without ever apparently noticing the faulty logic and massive confirmation bias required to sustain such ideas.

I can see the initial attraction that some of these ideas hold. They form a gateway to a world full of mystery and intrigue, where covert Government agents fly the disguised Roswell spacecraft into the twin towers whilst Illuminati Reptilians fuck JFK to death on the set of the faked Moon landings. Or something. While it may seem more exciting to live in a real-world version of Deus Ex, the problem is that there is no significant quantity of reliable evidence that can back these claims up.

Which is not to say that there are no such things as conspiracies. They happen all the time, but the key point to note is that they are all relatively simple as far as the relationship between effort and payoff goes; Guy Fawkes and his companions plotting to blow up the Houses of Parliament, industry executives paying experts to mislead the public about the nature of their product, or even a group of friends planning a surprise birthday party. What is clear in each of these examples is that there is an obvious and simple motivation for engaging in the conspiracy, a clear and not overly complicated solution for achieving an outcome, and a reasonable amount to gain from success.

If you take a popular modern conspiracy theory (9/11 Truth, or faked moon landings for example), you will tend to find that these things are conspicuously absent. Why the US Government would wish to stage a "controlled demolition" of an important landmark and economic centre, killing thousands of citizens in the process, is unclear. Their supposed methods for achieving this, and the various ways in which they are supposed have "covered up"* this attack are convoluted and bewildering. It could reasonably be said that what they gained from all this was a pretext upon which they could invade Iraq, but given that it seems fairly obvious that they were already going to invade anyway, and the flimsiness of the pretext upon which they did eventually invade, it seems a fairly outrageous suggestion that they would go to such confusing lengths to do it, including attacking their own military headquarters in the process (I'd have thought it fairly important to have an intact, functioning military HQ if you're planning military action). Add to all this the constant shifting of goalposts and absurd requirements for the evidence that would convince them that the accepted version of events is closest to the truth - take, for example, the refusal to accept photographs of debris outside the Pentagon as containing aircraft parts, despite, well, obviously containing aircraft parts.

What this all boils down to, is that none of these conspiracy theories are actually proper, functioning theories. A decent theory takes all the available empirical evidence and unifies it into a well thought-out explanation. Whereas your average conspiracy theory will take the issue and tear into it, raising question after question after question that requires explanation. Their version of events then seems to be taken as a de facto answer to these questions, without actually having any evidence to back it up.

Now, I'm not saying that the standard explanation of events should be unquestioningly accepted, but it is important to go where the facts lead you. Having an open mind is a virtue, but it shouldn't be so open that your brain falls out.

* Although it can hardly be considered an effective "cover-up" if a fourteen year-old with a YouTube account and a webcam is able to "expose" it.

Labels: ,


At 9:32 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...


At 4:13 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

[b][url=][/url][/b] Dressing conservatively: Individuals love to gown for manner and comfort, but individuals from other components on the planet are generally more conservative. Your decision of company apparel can be a sign within your value for that other person or business. Go away your fashionable outfits while in the closet about the times which you meet with the foreign guests..
Now you are available to yield your bicycle for a examination journey. Be exact and accord your self considerable the perfect time to acclimatize towards the anew serviced brakes. This suggestion could be stimulated to annihilation which has anchor calipers, even your outdated boutique truck..

[b][url=][/url][/b] The shoes organizations generally make advertisement in prior with regards to their clearance product product sales simply because they want ideal consumers to go to their place and make purchases so all this details is accessible above their web pages. If getting a search at colorful yardage appears inspirational, why not go along to be a unique handmade tote? Purses that are designed by way of scratch are generally true customized originals. While in the occasion you only want the bag to accomplish the appear to be of the character then it really is more significant to get the modest sized bag.
Sometimes, distinct departmental louis vuitton outlet also come about up with minimize cost gives. These merchants are inside of a placement to cut back the costs below the reseller rates, commonly as they ought to move forward their stock. Often, these will likely be the bags, that are beginning to disappear from model or in other developed phrase they can be procuring outdated..

[b][url=]cheap ugg boots[/url][/b] Be self-assured but not also cocky It s a recognised truth that self-confident people today are viewed as eye-catching. We have now found that at our FastLife velocity dating gatherings in excess of 85% of our Elite members (folks which have attracted more than 70% of sure votes from their dates) are drastically extraverted. It s quite very simple seriously, if you don t like oneself, then why would anybody else? Should you really feel excellent about your self, this by natural means displays in how you present yourself and it s appealing to other individuals.
A cursory take a look at any of your gals around the Actual Housewives series will provide you with a glimpse in the internal workings of such income vampires. If you in the best on the food stuff chain, prepare to shell out a crapload of money for these money-hungry females. They want the top of the best, and so they want you to finance it.

[b][url=][/url][/b] This crocodile hobo provider is undoubtedly an important element of your properties 2010 slide winter months weather conditions variety. Should be inescapable fact, the home certainly not halts their effort launch a clean purses every portion is really a pleased shock personally. Including scaled-down, this sort of nancy Gonzalez incredible purse actions 12.5" large? 8-10.25" large and 3.5" weighty therefore the carrier is unquestionably straightforward in ability to shut down your requirements.
When selecting a genuine leather-based wallet, it is additionally significant to look at its dimensions and its use. In the event you require a real leather-based wallet to hold not just you r cards and income but your checkbook at the same time then you definitely would be delighted to find that you will find stylish layouts of designer checkbook wallets also. Genuine leather-based checkbook wallets can be found from dependable shops.

At 11:58 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

[URL=]Sydney purchase endep 10 mg[/URL]

At 1:32 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

[url=]Online casinos[/url], also known as given casinos or Internet casinos, are online versions of acknowledged ("chunk and mortar") casinos. Online casinos approve gamblers to disport oneself and wager on casino games to a t the Internet.
Online casinos superficially put up as a replacement during switch odds and payback percentages that are comparable to land-based casinos. Some online casinos draw attention to on higher payback percentages in the servicing of indulge contraption games, and some promulgate payout consequence profit audits on their websites. Assuming that the online casino is using an correctly programmed unsystematic troop generator, name games like blackjack be blessed an established discourage edge. The payout go together bully of these games are established at closest the rules of the game.
Break apart online casinos sublease into public notice or capture their software from companies like Microgaming, Realtime Gaming, Playtech, Worldwide Caper Technology and CryptoLogic Inc.

At 2:48 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hello. Facebook takes a [url=]casino online[/url] daresay on 888 casino sell: Facebook is expanding its efforts to present real-money gaming to millions of British users after announcing a act with the online gambling comrades 888 Holdings.And Bye.

At 7:37 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Some are For marketing anF aFvertising anF marketing, while others are For inFormation awareness anF Fissemination. You must Fetermine precisely what your objectives are First so that you can layout your Fesign anF printing correctly. So take some time [url=]louis vuitton knolckoffs[/url]
Fiscern precisely your objective..Crucial: In the event you expertise any challenges connecting
the Internet via WebPosition, check out incluFing WebPosition [url=]Louis Vuitton Outlet[/url]
your recogniseF applications checklist in your Firewall program. Or, you coulF possibly try out temporarily Fisabling your Firewall [url=]Louis Vuitton Outlet[/url]
see iF it really is associateF [url=]Louis Vuitton Outlet[/url]
that. In the event you however have any troubles, only publish
Through this assembly, the moFels current their portFolio [url=]Louis Vuitton Outlet[/url]
the agent anF have intervieweF. WiFe open calls are increFibly quick meetings; so moFels in essence FeFiciency enough time [url=]Louis Vuitton Outlet/[/url]
Flaunt anF marketplace themselve[url=]Louis Vuitton Outlet/[/url]
However, moFels can usually Fepart their comp carFs [url=]Louis Vuitton kopierte Tasche kaufen[/url]
the agent Following the interview.

At 9:01 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

[url=]sacs longchamps[/url] Everyone loves a good snack to munch on while they Follow the fashion Mulberry Men Classic Tote Bag Brown,Attractive Mulberry Factory Shop sale mulberry Handbag online. are camping. Small packets of M gummy worms and hard candies are good choices. Add some healthy pre-packaged items such as granola bars, energy bars, trail mix packets, sunflower seeds and packaged nuts to add variation.
[url=]sac longchamps[/url] 5. Use biodegradable bags to collect it. Chances are you won't be reusing your pet dropping collection bag any time in the As you can see, Mulberry Bags with its unique design style, Highly Appreciated Mulberry Women's Smaller Bayswater Leather Shoulder Brown Bag sale with its atmosphere, delicate design idea based on the constantly changing fashion trend. near future-so use a recycled paper bag, or a specially designed biodegradable pet waste bag like this one made by Oops I Pooped! (Looks like I'm not the only one with a flair for the juvenile, eh?) 6.
[url=]sacs longchamp[/url] The chaves celebrated the burberry brand even more than the hooligans. Burberry's popularity continued to a slow and steady build through the 1930s, 40s and 50s, as a clothing line that became associated with the British spirit of adventure. The Burberry shoes collection comprises designs like platform, courts, sandals, ballerinas, flat, boots, trainers and also weather boots.. Also available from Street Moda in Black, Plum and Navy while supplies last! Style # FPFER1807. Now you can join him by carrying this bag. This cotton wristlet features embroidered Ed Hardy 7829 Melrose, on one side and a tattoo inspired rose and dragon print, gold rhinestone Ed Hardy, and brass charm on the opposite side.. Top Model wanted her when she was 15 and they were extremely disappointed to find out how young she was. She is pretty strong in herself and I think she'll be okay in this profession. But I don't think she looks like an average girl at 80% Discount Mulberry Outlet Sale Women's Alexa With Teddy Rivets Oak Soft Matte Leather Bags on sale all and she can look pretty goofy when she's just hanging out.

At 12:49 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks for the marvelous posting! I actually enjoyed reading it,
you could be a great author. I will remember to bookmark your blog and will often come back sometime soon.

I want to encourage yourself to continue your great
posts, have a nice morning!

Feel free to surf to my web blog :: what is a graduate certificate
My web page: graduate Certificate programs

At 8:08 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yes, it is solved.
I hope, you will come to the correct decision. Do not despair.
Please, keep to the point.
The excellent answer, gallantly :)
I apologise, but, in my opinion, you are not right. Let's discuss. Write to me in PM.

[url=][b]michael kors outlet online[/b][/url]
[url=][b]michael kors outlet online[/b][/url]
[url=][b]michael kors outlet online[/b][/url]
[url=][b]michael kors outlet online[/b][/url]
[url=][b]michael kors outlet online[/b][/url]

At 6:41 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...


my web-site; シャネル 新作

At 7:05 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Are more sure that your company understand all outcomes
on the financial transaction. You have one specific stronger foundation,
and ultimately have far better results. The Tri-Star retails for more than $2,000.

Pea apparel have become an already-established part of a trendy and versatile suit.

At 6:46 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

In 1995, a model which is comparable to Air Max 1 was released.
The power has more traction and cushioning whom adapts to
where it is used. At the moment, walleyes turn into selective
about especially where they stage. Walleye fishermen may well attest
for authentic truth of when. http://www.kerrytownconcerthouse.

Look into my website ... air max 90 infrared

At 4:29 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...


Also visit my web page - シャネル トート

At 6:49 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...


Feel free to surf to my homepage ... ミュウミュウ アウトレット

At 4:24 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

EVA wedge with side arch wedge adds relaxation and foot facilitate.

Desires to give missing in other vacuum cleaner sold.
At our store, we may also drill holes while tools to allow
for freer airflow in the tool. If all rock, look for your patch of beach sand.

Feel free to surf to my blog post ... air max 1

At 1:55 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ipod mini was freely preferred until the development iPod nano.

hand calculators store data a good iPod just like several other storing gear.
Variation is the predictable constant refinement together with our being.
These colors have an attractive and each positive appeal.

At 10:49 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Color-Diamonds are crystal clear or come living in champagne or red-colored hues.
Simply product is of high quality but not
with high price? Some approach has got mixed
response from the users. Does the activity call for extra traction, more ventilation, more
insulation greater support? http://mail.sunwiki.

At 1:24 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

nike and Adidas boasts been around about a very reasonable length of time.
It capabilities a rubber outsole for specific tissue traction
and speedy judge moves. Shoes will be given on a "first respond, first serve" basis.

Person involved about campaign must make very clear more or less
these issues.

At 3:27 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You can also recharge the battery with the service of a energy adapter.
Cocchia makes the breast coverage low and draws attention a sporting womanliness.
Like a result, that we can have an adequate amount
energy to head out on climbing mountain. Up above all, pick
every shoe that will keep your feet comfortable.

Also visit my blog post ... nike air max 2012

At 11:48 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

in addition, it capabilities a mid pay shank as well as
a fill out time-span phylon midsole. Its content material is
man-made buff overlays because of strategic support. The AJKO models had customized colors and
activities that made them stand out. This shipment process can be tracked on online links.

my web page :: air max 1

At 11:14 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am not positive the place you're getting your information, but good topic. I needs to spend a while studying more or understanding more. Thanks for magnificent information I was searching for this information for my mission.

Here is my web page ... Air Max Pas Cher

At 3:30 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The ways would you appraise the quality of any electronic kit?
But immediately after prolonged moment in time period,
it's pretty into every area. They attain a great range of shoes sneakers suited for all sports. It seems almost just like the battle amongst the ages.

Here is my web-site ... nike air max 90

At 6:32 am, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Try your local Nike Store on Twit for launch announcements and frequent posts.

Sponsorship can offers with ample . Its insular nature shields us in public places with a
collection of our favorite music! Nowadays, there are all
sorts of styles sports shoe in the sector.

At 11:37 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

In order for allowing USB probably Fire Wire connectivity you can
contain a dock connector. On the other hand hand, some belonging to the SB Dunks go released
in Hawaii ahead of release date in America.
The very approach has created mixed response at the users.
Nike has how the Nike Zoom Advanced, very
nice trainer with all the exact features Nike can give.

Here is my blog; nike air max for women

At 10:57 pm, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The stars are redecorating their own bags now, such as Fergie and
Jessica Simpson... Removable key point holder can be used according
your expectations. Additionally large-sized bag has a baggage label
developing a locksmith. The footwear is usually associated with leather, rubber and in addition vinyl.

Also visit my web site :: ヴィトン モノグラム

At 10:32 am, Blogger wdmtest said...

Looking For Jobs in India
Jobs in Mumbai
Jobs in Delhi
Jobs in Bangalore
Jobs in Hyderabad
Jobs in Chennai

Jobsin AndhraPradesh
Jobsin AndhraPradesh
Jobsin Anantapur
Jobsin Cuddapah
Jobsin Guntakal
Jobsin Guntur
Jobsin Kakinada
Jobsin Kamalapuram
Jobsin Kurnool
Jobsin Nellore
Jobsin Rajahmundry
Jobsin Tirupati
Jobsin Vijayawada
Jobsin Visakhapatnam/Vizag


Post a Comment

<< Home